国泰君安合并海通证券预案点评：一流投行雏形渐显，合并推进速度继续超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is a significant event in the development of China's capital market, with the merger plan announced on October 9, 2024, and both companies resuming trading on October 10, 2024 [4][6] - The exchange ratio for the merger is set at 1:0.62 for both A-shares and H-shares, with Haitong's H-shares having a certain premium [5][6] - Post-merger, Guotai Junan's total assets are projected to reach 1,619.5 billion yuan, with net assets of 331.1 billion yuan and net capital of 177.2 billion yuan, all ranking first in the industry; net profit is expected to be 18.8 billion yuan, ranking second [5][6][7] Summary by Sections Event Commentary - On October 9, 2024, both Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan announced their merger plan, which involves a share exchange and fundraising [4][6] - The exchange ratio is confirmed at 1:0.62, with specific share prices set for both A-shares and H-shares of the companies [5][6] Financial Metrics - After the merger, Guotai Junan's total assets, net assets, net capital, and operating income are expected to rank first in the industry, with net profit ranking second [5][6] Dynamic Assessment - The merger is anticipated to create synergies in three main areas: enhanced capital utilization, improved service capabilities, and stronger management support [7][8] - The combined entity will leverage its larger asset base to optimize risk management and improve operational efficiency [7] - The merger will also enhance customer service experiences and operational management through digital integration [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should closely monitor the key transaction milestones and integration arrangements following the merger, as the current market conditions are favorable for brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [9]