Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (1928 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 24.70, corresponding to a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 12x [2][7]. Core Views - The completion of renovations is imminent, which is expected to recover lost market share as previously diverted customers return. The Sheraton hotel will be transformed into the first luxury hotel under the Marriott brand (Londoner Macao), offering 2,405 new rooms and suites, enhancing synergy with the other two Londoner hotels. The entertainment venue, Galaxy Macau, will also reopen after renovations in December [2][3]. - The company may restart dividend payments earlier than expected, with a potential dividend of around HKD 1 for 2025 if the previous payout ratio of approximately 5% is maintained [4]. - The recent performance of the stock has been affected by low allocation from funds, indicating a potential need for reallocation in the future [2]. Summary by Sections Renovation and Market Recovery - The imminent completion of renovations is expected to enhance Sands China's capacity to attract customers, recovering market share lost during the renovation period. The reopening of the entertainment venue and the transformation of the Sheraton hotel into a luxury Marriott property are key factors in this recovery [3][4]. Dividend Expectations - With the business returning to normal post-pandemic, there is an expectation that dividends may be reinstated sooner. Historically, Sands China paid an annual dividend of HKD 1.99 per share from 2014 until the pandemic, and if this trend resumes, the 2025 dividend could be around HKD 1 [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts indicating significant revenue growth from HKD 51,057 million in 2023 to HKD 72,806 million by 2026, with a projected EBITDA of HKD 21,032 million in 2025 [6][12]. - The report also highlights a structural shift in the Macau gaming market, moving from high-end to mid-tier customers, which may influence future revenue streams [4][5].
金沙中国有限公司：改造竣工在即，或将收复失地，上调目标价至24.7港元