东海证券：晨会纪要-20241011

Key Recommendations - The continuation of the third-generation refrigerant policy is expected to drive an upward trend in the refrigerant industry, with prices for R32, R125, and R134a increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024 [7][8] - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, suggesting that refrigerant prices will remain on an upward trajectory due to reduced social inventory and stable demand for R22 in the maintenance market [8] - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes for October to December 2024 projected to be 11.77 million, 13.31 million, and 14.91 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 23.95%, 24.00%, and 9.70% [8] Oil and Gas Resource Research - The market capitalization of oil and gas companies is significantly influenced by oil reserves and production levels, with a regression model indicating that these factors are primary determinants of company value [10][11] - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity is robust, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a 163% increase year-on-year and reaching historical highs [10] - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel for the year, with short-term support at $65 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. rig count declines [10][11] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [8] - For the oil and gas sector, attention should be given to state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which possess strong resource reserves and refining capacities, despite lower ROE compared to international peers [11]