中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产由子沛：政策环境持续优化，土地市场持续巩固-20241011

Core Insights - The report indicates that the policy environment for the real estate sector is continuously improving, leading to a more stable land market [2] - It highlights a significant decline in land supply and transaction amounts in Q3 2024, suggesting a cooling period in the market [2] Land Supply and Transaction Summary - In Q3 2024, the national land supply area was 827 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% [2] - The total land transfer revenue for Q3 2024 was 720 billion, down 29.16% year-on-year [2] - The average land transfer premium rate in Q3 2024 was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to Q3 2023 [2] - The premium rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities were 6.75%, 3.14%, and 3.25% respectively [2] - The average bid failure rate in Q3 2024 was 1.08%, a significant drop from 10.33% in Q3 2023 [2] High-Value and High-Premium Land Analysis - In Q3 2024, there were four high-value land parcels, all located in first-tier cities, with total prices exceeding 5 billion [2] - The number of cities with land premium rates exceeding 20% was 17 in July 2024, decreasing to 15 in August and September [2] - The cumulative land transfer revenue rankings were led by Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the decline in land supply and transaction amounts indicates a cooling market, but the decrease in premium and bid failure rates reflects cautious optimism among developers [2] - It is noted that the current real estate sales and land markets are at low levels, yet the policy environment is the most accommodative in recent years, which is expected to support valuation recovery in the sector [2]