JACK(SH:603337) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-10-11 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its leading position in the industry and the expected recovery in industry conditions [4]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 789 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 46.60% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company has shown strong performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 6-6.3 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.49%-52.77% [2][3]. - The report highlights the positive outlook for the company's performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by a recovery in domestic demand [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.83-2.13 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.87%-50% despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.99%-20% [2][3]. - The domestic market for sewing machinery showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2024, contributing to the company's strong performance [3]. - The report anticipates a rebound in domestic demand in Q4 2024, which is expected to accelerate the company's growth [3]. Export Performance - The export data for industrial sewing machines is robust, with July 2024 showing an export volume of 400,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%, and an export value of 133 million USD, up 19.54% [3]. - For the first seven months of 2024, the cumulative export volume reached 2.68 million units, a growth of 2.09%, with an export value of 862 million USD, reflecting a 7.2% increase [3]. - The company has actively expanded its overseas market presence, with export revenue in the first half of 2024 reaching 1.454 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.89% [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.89 billion RMB, 9.97 billion RMB, and 12.19 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for the company are 15X, 12X, and 10X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation given its industry leadership [4]. - The report outlines a revenue forecast of 5.983 billion RMB for 2024, with a growth rate of 13.01% [7].