东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241011

Core Insights - The acceleration of local government special bond issuance since August 2024 is expected to significantly boost infrastructure investment and improve domestic demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1][2][3] - The total issuance of special bonds from January to September 2024 reached 3.61 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.44%, reversing the previous negative growth trend [1] - The issuance in August and September alone accounted for 47% of the annual target of 3.9 trillion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal policy [1][2] Summary by Sections Special Bond Issuance - Special bond issuance has accelerated, with August and September 2024 seeing monthly issuances of 805.1 billion yuan and 1,027.9 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 34% and 188% respectively [1] - The cumulative issuance for the first nine months of 2024 reached 3.61 trillion yuan, which is 92.51% of the annual target [1] Economic Impact - The increase in special bond issuance is expected to create tangible work volume in the fourth quarter of 2024, enhancing infrastructure investment and stimulating domestic demand [1][2] - The slow issuance in the first seven months of 2024 was primarily due to local governments focusing on debt reduction, but the recent acceleration is anticipated to counteract this trend [1] Policy Coordination - The acceleration of special bond issuance reflects a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies, aimed at enhancing policy effectiveness and boosting domestic demand [2] - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, complement the fiscal measures associated with special bond issuance [2] Industry Outlook - The construction and building materials industry is expected to see marginal improvements in demand due to the favorable policy environment and the anticipated recovery in the real estate sector [7] - The report suggests that if supply optimization and policy effects transition from quantitative to qualitative changes, the industry could experience a "Davis double play" in terms of valuation and performance improvement [7]