Investment Rating - Maintain Buy-A rating with a 12-month target price of 15.6 RMB, equivalent to a 12x forward P/E ratio for 2025 [1][2] Core Views - The company's old factory land in Yiwu has been acquired by the government, resulting in a compensation of 232 million RMB, which will significantly boost 2024 net profit [1] - The new intelligent factory is expected to reach full production capacity soon, with potential improvements in production efficiency and cost control, benefiting profitability starting from 2025 [1] - Current valuation remains low, presenting a potential re-rating opportunity [1] Financial Performance - 2023 net profit was 105.9 million RMB, while the compensation amount of 232 million RMB far exceeds this, indicating a substantial profit boost for 2024 [1] - 2024E net profit is projected to reach 374.8 million RMB, a 253.8% YoY increase, driven by the compensation and new factory operations [6] - 2025E net profit is expected to decline to 186.7 million RMB due to the one-time nature of the compensation, but still represents a 15.2% net profit margin [6] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratio is 11.9x, with a forward P/E of 4.9x for 2024E and 9.9x for 2025E [6] - P/B ratio stands at 1.4x, expected to decrease to 1.2x in 2024E and 1.1x in 2025E [6] - ROE is projected to improve significantly to 23.7% in 2024E from 8.0% in 2023A [6] Growth Prospects - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 18.4% in 2025E, driven by the new factory's increased capacity [6] - EBITDA growth is forecasted at 155.4% in 2025E, reflecting operational improvements from the new facility [6] - The company's ROIC is expected to rebound to 15.2% in 2025E, up from 7.8% in 2024E [6] Operational Efficiency - Gross margin is projected to improve to 23.6% in 2025E, up from 21.5% in 2024E, due to better cost control at the new factory [6] - Inventory turnover days are expected to decrease from 75 days in 2024E to 71 days in 2025E, indicating improved inventory management [6] - Fixed asset turnover days are forecasted to decline from 303 days in 2024E to 285 days in 2025E, reflecting higher asset utilization [6] Capital Structure - Debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve to 46.6% in 2024E from 61.3% in 2023A, indicating a healthier capital structure [6] - Current ratio is projected to increase significantly to 2.92 in 2024E from 1.73 in 2023A, reflecting improved liquidity [6] - Interest coverage ratio is forecasted to turn positive at 50.01x in 2025E, up from -15.05x in 2023A [6]
真爱美家：旧厂房获征收，增厚利润规模