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新华保险:公司公告点评:股市上涨带动投资收益增长,前三季度归母净利润同比翻倍

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with estimates ranging from 186 billion to 205 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 95% to 115% [5]. - The substantial profit growth is attributed to the recovery of the capital market, which has led to increased investment income, alongside improvements in the quality of insurance liabilities and business structure [5][6]. - The company's high proportion of equity and fund holdings contributes to its performance sensitivity to stock market fluctuations, with equity and fund investments accounting for 10.0% and 8.1% of total investment assets, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financial performance includes: - Revenue for 2024E is estimated at 94.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.58% [7]. - Net profit for 2024E is projected at 21.984 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 152.34% [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is expected to be 7.05 yuan [7]. - The company maintains a low valuation with a projected PEV of 0.80-0.85 times for 2024, indicating a reasonable price range of 68.35-72.63 yuan [6]. Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 51.73 yuan, with a 52-week price fluctuation range of 27.35-53.90 yuan [2]. - The absolute and relative performance against the CSI 300 index shows significant gains over 1M, 2M, and 3M periods, with absolute increases of 59.8%, 78.5%, and 73.3%, respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a P/E ratio of 7.34 for 2024E, with a P/B ratio of 1.60 [13]. - The net asset value per share (BVPS) is projected to be 32.40 yuan for 2024E [13].