宏观大类日报：美国9月CPI略高于预期

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US September CPI year-on-year recorded at 2.4%, slightly above the expected 2.3% and marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, the lowest since February 2021[3] - The US non-farm payroll data for September exceeded market expectations, leading to a forecast of a 50 basis points rate cut by the end of the year[3] - The Federal Reserve's potential 25 basis points rate cut may become a norm due to economic resilience and ongoing manufacturing downturns[3] Group 2: Policy Developments - China's central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market[4] - New policy tools were introduced to support the stock market, including a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan program[4] - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize the financial market[4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Commodity futures suggest a bullish stance on precious metals while maintaining a neutral outlook on other commodities[2] - The black and colored metals sectors are sensitive to policy changes, with steel fundamentals remaining relatively strong[4] - The energy sector is influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding Iran's oil facilities and the Strait of Hormuz[4] Group 4: Risks - Geopolitical risks could lead to upward pressure on energy prices[5] - A potential global economic downturn could negatively impact risk assets[5] - Unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve poses risks to risk assets[5]