新能源汽车行业：“金十”旺季冲量，上调全年中国电动车销量预期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that multiple automotive companies have achieved record sales in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with a significant sales surge expected in October. The estimated retail sales of passenger vehicles in September are projected to reach 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.3% and a month-on-month increase of 7.3%. The NEV sales are expected to exceed 1.25 million units, reflecting a growth rate of over 14% [2][3]. - BYD's electric vehicle sales reached 419,400 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.6% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. This surge is attributed to the release of new models and technological advancements [2][3]. - The report anticipates an upward revision of the annual NEV sales forecast for China to 12.5 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.7% and a market penetration rate of 40.3%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, several automotive companies reported record monthly sales, with BYD exceeding 410,000 units, Li Auto stabilizing around 50,000 units, and other brands like Seres and Leap Motor also achieving significant sales milestones [2]. - The introduction of new electric vehicle models, particularly in the B-class SUV segment, is expected to drive further sales growth, targeting the mid-range market [2]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that local government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs are expected to stimulate demand, with over 1.13 million applications for vehicle scrapping subsidies received as of late September [2]. - The anticipated increase in new vehicle models and technological upgrades is expected to enhance market competitiveness and consumer interest [2]. Company Focus - Key companies to watch include BYD, CATL, and other leading players in the NEV supply chain, which are expected to benefit from the growing market and technological advancements [2][3].