房地产行业专题研究：新政助力“止跌回稳”，板块价值锚点重估

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [7]. Core Insights - The central government has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with local governments following suit to optimize regulations. Key measures include lowering the minimum down payment for second homes from 25% to 15% and reducing existing mortgage rates by approximately 50 basis points [3][11]. - Market transactions are showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in daily transactions during the National Day holiday period. The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 72 cities reached 2,622 units, a 23.4% increase from the previous week and an 81.5% increase compared to the same period last year [3][21]. - Housing prices are a critical variable to monitor, with recent data indicating fluctuations in price trends following policy changes. The report emphasizes the importance of observing housing prices as a key indicator of market stability [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Central Policies and Local Follow-up - The "924" policy introduced on September 24, 2024, represents an upgrade to previous measures, enhancing support for the real estate sector. This includes a reduction in down payment requirements and an increase in the funding support ratio for affordable housing loans [11][12]. - Following the "924" policy, major cities have implemented various measures to relax restrictions, such as the complete removal of purchase limits in Guangzhou and adjustments to down payment ratios in Beijing and Shanghai [16][18]. 2. Market Transaction Recovery - Data from real estate agencies indicate a recovery in market transactions, particularly in first-tier cities. The report notes that the average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes has significantly increased during the National Day holiday [21][23]. - The report highlights that the actual transaction data may lag behind due to the timing of contract signings and registrations, suggesting that further increases in transactions may be observed in the near future [3][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing the allocation to the real estate sector, with expectations of a market capitalization recovery trend. It recommends focusing on companies with strong cash flow and stable operations, particularly those with low valuations and high sales growth [4][20]. - Specific companies such as China Overseas Development and Yuexiu Property are highlighted as having significant potential for recovery, with the report suggesting they may reach a NAV of 1x, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [4][20].