（US）2QFY25前瞻：关注双十一大促竞争后的变现率与利润额企稳节奏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (BABA US) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $140.10 [3][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the monetization rate and profit stabilization following the competitive landscape of the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival [1]. - Despite increased competition from platforms like Pinduoduo, the report anticipates that the performance of major e-commerce platforms, including Alibaba, will not experience significant marginal impacts in the short term [1]. - The report adjusts the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25/26/27 to RMB 157.8 billion, RMB 187.1 billion, and RMB 209.7 billion respectively, reflecting a slight decrease due to competitive pressures [1][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The expected revenue for Alibaba in 2QFY25 is projected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year to RMB 238.4 billion, with adjusted EBITA declining by 4.6% to RMB 40.9 billion [2]. - The Taobao and Tmall group's revenue is expected to increase by 2.0%, with a similar growth rate anticipated for CMR revenue [2]. - The report highlights that the overall revenue forecast for FY25/FY26/FY27 has been slightly adjusted to RMB 1,005.4 billion, RMB 1,118.1 billion, and RMB 1,194.2 billion respectively [6][7]. Valuation and Market Position - The target price adjustment to $140.1 is primarily driven by improved market sentiment and liquidity, leading to a slight increase in the valuation multiples for Taobao and Tmall [1][9]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation indicates that the Taobao and Tmall group is valued at $72.9 per ADS based on an 8.0x FY25 non-GAAP PE, which is a discount compared to peers [9][10]. - The report notes that the international digital commerce group is valued at $18.8 per ADS, while the local life group is valued at $5.9 per ADS, reflecting the competitive dynamics in the respective markets [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that platforms like Tmall, JD, Douyin, Kuaishou, and Pinduoduo have all advanced their Double Eleven promotional timelines to capture market share [1]. - The anticipated stabilization of the monetization rate and profit levels post-Double Eleven is highlighted as a critical factor for investors assessing Alibaba's valuation [1][2]. Financial Metrics - The adjusted non-GAAP net profit margin for FY25 is projected to be 15.7%, down from previous estimates due to competitive pressures [6][7]. - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including expected revenue growth rates and profit margins for the upcoming fiscal years, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability as market conditions stabilize [5][17].