9月美国通胀数据解读：通胀下降步伐放缓

Inflation Trends - In September, the US CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded to 3.3%, primarily due to a narrowing decline in core goods[2] - The energy component of CPI fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, contributing more to the overall CPI decline[4] Housing and Services - Core services year-on-year growth rate was 4.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in housing-related inflation[6] - The year-on-year growth rate of owners' equivalent rent slightly decreased to 5.2%, reflecting a downward trend in housing inflation[6] - Leading indicators such as housing prices and market rent indices are still in a downward trajectory, suggesting continued relief in service inflation pressures[6] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November increased to 87% following the release of the September inflation data[9] - Following the inflation report, US stock indices experienced declines, while US Treasury yields fell and the US dollar index rose[9] - The market anticipates that inflation will continue to decline, with core goods prices expected to remain low due to falling used car prices[9] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, a sharper-than-expected economic downturn in the US, and unexpected increases in inflation[10]