基础化工行业专题报告：2025年配额政策逐渐明朗，看好制冷剂价格中枢向上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Viewpoints - The quota policy for 2025 is becoming clearer, and there is optimism for an upward shift in refrigerant price levels [1]. - International environmental agreements support the optimization of the refrigerant supply side, with China's commitment to phasing out HFCs and HCFCs [3][9]. - The consistency, stability, and predictability of China's quota system are maintained, with adjustments aimed at ensuring supply chain security [3][19]. - The supply-demand dynamics for specific refrigerant types in 2025 are expected to be more favorable, particularly for HFC-32, HFC-134a, and HCFC-22 [3][30]. Summary by Sections External International Agreements Supporting Refrigerant Supply Optimization - China's participation in international agreements has led to the gradual phasing out of HFCs and HCFCs, with production and consumption of HFCs frozen at baseline levels starting in 2024 [3][13]. - The first reduction of HFCs is expected to begin in 2029, while HCFCs will see a 67.5% reduction by 2025 [3][13]. Domestic Quota System Maintaining Consistency, Stability, and Predictability - In 2024, China will enter the quota management period for HFCs, with a total production quota of 18.53 million tons of CO2 equivalent [19]. - The quota policy allows for limited adjustments, ensuring that the industry remains concentrated among a few key players [19][22]. - The quota adjustments throughout the year are designed to maintain supply without altering the overall market structure [22]. More Optimistic Supply-Demand Dynamics for 2025 - HFC-32 is expected to benefit from a shift in demand structure for air conditioning, with market share projected to rise to 80-90% [30]. - HFC-134a demand is anticipated to grow due to policies promoting vehicle upgrades and the increasing share of new energy vehicles [39]. - The scarcity of production quotas for HCFC-22 is expected to enhance price elasticity, with significant reductions in production quotas for 2025 [30][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Haohua Technology, Dongyangguang, and Jinshi Resources due to the favorable supply-demand dynamics and price support for refrigerants [3].