病灶仍在：战后日本经济周期与自我拯救

Economic Growth Phases - Japan's post-war economic growth can be divided into three phases: rapid growth (1950s-1970s) with an average annual growth rate of 10%[1], moderate growth (1970s-1980s) with around 5% growth[1], and stagnation (1990s-present) with growth rates below 1%[1] - The rapid growth phase was driven by industrialization, export-oriented policies, and unique economic systems like the main bank system and lifetime employment[1] Policy Responses - The Dodge Plan in 1948 stabilized Japan's economy by controlling inflation, fixing exchange rates, and encouraging exports, laying the foundation for future growth[10] - Abenomics, launched in 2012, aimed to achieve 2% inflation through bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and growth strategies to stimulate private investment[13] Challenges and Risks - Japan faces persistent challenges such as low growth, deflation, and weak consumption and investment, exacerbated by an aging population and high government debt[4] - Structural reforms have been slow, leading to widening income inequality and limited improvements in the real economy[4] Monetary Policy Evolution - Japan's monetary policy has evolved from interest rate adjustments in the 1990s to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 1999, quantitative easing (QE) in 2001, and negative interest rates in 2016[33] - In March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended its eight-year negative interest rate policy, raising rates to 0-0.1% and signaling a shift in economic strategy[33] Fiscal Policy and Stimulus - Japan's fiscal policy has been expansionary since the 1990s, with increased public spending and tax cuts to stimulate growth, but this has led to significant government debt[35] - During the global financial crisis, Japan implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, including increased public investment and credit support for businesses[35]