原油及聚酯产业链月报（2024年10月）：油价震荡为主，关注国内宏观预期改善下的资产修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on upstream resources, oil services, and stable targets within the industry [96]. Core Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, benefiting companies with upstream resource attributes such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC [96]. - The oil service industry is projected to maintain stable capital expenditures, with continued domestic exploration and production growth [96]. - The downstream textile and apparel industry is anticipated to experience a weak recovery in demand, with a focus on integrated refining and chemical companies [96]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review and Outlook - Brent crude oil fluctuated between $60 and $90 per barrel, with expectations of continued support from OPEC+ production cuts [11][4]. - The report predicts short-term oil price support at $65 per barrel, with long-term demand significantly influencing prices [4]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - Domestic bond rates are expected to remain stable, with potential appreciation of the RMB [96]. - The U.S. economy shows resilience, but manufacturing PMI remains weak, indicating ongoing inflation risks [96]. Polyester Industry Chain - The report highlights a decline in PTA and ethylene glycol prices, with the overall polyester chain profitability turning negative for the first time this year [65][69]. - The average inventory level for polyester filament yarn decreased slightly, indicating a potential recovery in supply-demand dynamics [75]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong upstream resource attributes and stable capital expenditures in the oil service sector [96]. - Integrated refining and chemical companies are favored due to their cost advantages and market positioning [96].