海外观察：2024年9月美国CPI：核心通胀黏性依旧

Inflation Data - In September, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%[2] - The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, above the expected 3.2% and unchanged from the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, while the core CPI rose by 0.3%[2] Market Implications - The persistent core inflation indicates ongoing risks, leading the market to price in at least one interest rate hold in November and December, which may impact US stock valuations[2] - The divergence between CPI and core CPI has widened, with CPI showing a declining trend for six consecutive months, while core CPI rebounded for the first time since March 2023[2] Energy Prices - Energy prices fell by 4.0% month-on-month, primarily driven by a 4.1% drop in gasoline prices and a 6.0% decrease in fuel prices[2] - Despite OPEC+ extending voluntary production cuts, demand forecasts were downgraded, resulting in a more than 5% decline in crude oil futures prices[2] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices increased by 0.2%, marking a shift from a downward trend seen in six of the previous seven months[2] - Notably, used car prices rose by 0.3%, and clothing prices surged by 1.1%, continuing their upward trend for two consecutive months[2] Service Sector Resilience - Core services prices rose by 0.4%, with transportation services seeing a significant increase of 1.4%, marking three consecutive months of growth[3] - The service sector's strength is supported by a rebound in wages, which are a major cost component[3] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 258,000, the highest level since August 2023, but the impact on inflation expectations is considered limited due to external factors like hurricanes and strikes[3] - The rebound in core inflation reinforces expectations for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Risks - Potential fluctuations in Chinese export prices could impact US inflation rates[3] - Geopolitical risks remain a concern for market stability[3]