东方战略周观察：以黎冲突再升级

Geopolitical Developments - On October 1, 2024, the Israeli military crossed the Lebanon-Israel border, marking the first ground invasion since the 2006 Lebanon War[7] - Prior to the invasion, Israel conducted airstrikes that eliminated key leaders of Hezbollah, including military leader on September 20 and leader Nasrallah on September 27[7] - The Lebanese military and UN forces withdrew from the border area, possibly influenced by U.S. military aid to Lebanon[7] Market Reactions - Gold prices spiked on October 1 during the Israeli ground operation but later returned to trading based on economic fundamentals[7] - Oil prices experienced a unilateral upward trend post-October 1, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and threats to Iranian oil facilities[7] Short-term Uncertainties - The main uncertainty in the Middle East is whether direct conflict between Israel and Iran will escalate further, particularly regarding potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil and nuclear facilities[7] - Netanyahu's government appears to lack constraints against further provocations towards Iran, with geopolitical and political factors aligning to support continued aggression[7] Long-term Considerations - Iran's government under President Pezeshkian has shown restraint, launching over 180 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets but claiming not to seek war[8] - The Iranian government may face pressure to abandon its nuclear weapons program as security conditions worsen, complicating potential reconciliation with the U.S.[8] Russia-Ukraine Conflict - As of October 3, 2024, Russian forces confirmed control over the key town of Uglidar in Donbas, reflecting negative impacts on Ukrainian military strength[9] - NATO has not indicated any changes to its support for Ukraine, maintaining the current conflict dynamics[9]