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半导体行业事件点评:客户议价态度强硬,存储渠道市场现货均价走低
Xiangcai Securities·2024-10-11 06:39

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Buy" [4] Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed trend in the storage product market, with a weak recovery in demand and price fluctuations expected [2][3] - The global PC shipment growth has slowed down to 1.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 66.4 million units, influenced by rising costs and inventory replenishment [5] - The demand for AI servers is expected to continue driving the market for advanced semiconductor hardware, including high-performance Ethernet switches, routers, and GPUs [19] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The storage market is facing supply-demand imbalances due to aggressive capacity expansions by manufacturers, leading to potential price declines for storage chips [2][5] - The DXI index has shown a year-to-date increase of 60.3%, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor market [6] Pricing Dynamics - The average spot price for DDR5 products has increased by 15%-20% in Q3 2024, with expectations of a further 5%-10% increase in Q4 2024 [3][19] - Prices for DDR4 and DDR3 products are expected to remain stable, while LPDDR4X products are projected to decline by 5%-10% [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to the semiconductor industry, highlighting the potential for growth driven by AI applications and supportive policies for high-quality economic development [19][20] - The overall DRAM market is expected to see price increases of 0%-5% for traditional DRAM and 8%-13% for HBM products due to rising market shares [19][20]