Shanxi Securities·2024-10-11 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports [2][5] Core Views - Anta's brand retail sales growth has slowed down in Q3 2024, with online performance outperforming offline channels. The overall retail discount has improved, and inventory levels are healthy [1][5] - The FILA brand experienced a decline in retail sales, primarily due to the trend towards cost-effective consumption and adjustments in FILA FUSION and FILA KIDS [5][4] - The report anticipates that Anta and FILA's Q3 sales performance fell short of internal expectations, but the Golden Week holiday is expected to boost sales due to increased foot traffic [5] Company Performance - In Q3 2024, Anta's brand retail sales are expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with online sales projected to increase by over 20% [1] - FILA's retail sales saw a low single-digit decline year-on-year, with inventory turnover nearing 5 months, indicating a controllable level [4] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported retail sales growth of 45%-50%, with KOLON expected to grow by 65%-70% [2][3] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for Anta are as follows: 2024E at 69,369 million, 2025E at 77,443 million, and 2026E at 86,527 million, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 11.6%, and 11.7% respectively [7][8] - Net profit estimates are 13,293 million for 2024E, 13,606 million for 2025E, and 15,522 million for 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.9%, 2.4%, and 14.1% respectively [7][8] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 4.69, 4.80, and 5.48 for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.4, 19.0, and 16.6 [5][8]