打通货币与财政协同发力的渠道|国君热点研究

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The key to expanding the coordination space between monetary and fiscal policies lies in finding a common anchor, with risk assets (stocks) being a strong candidate due to the need for private sector balance sheet repair[1] - The monetary policy measures introduced on September 24 aim to narrow the gap between the decline rates of real financing rates and bond rates, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates and the establishment of a market-driven adjustment mechanism for housing loan rates[1] - The role of government bonds has been elevated as a connector between monetary and asset sides, with central bank operations on government bonds serving three purposes: liquidity management, price signal release, and emergency liquidity support to the stock market[1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Liquidity - October is a tax payment month, with fiscal deposits expected to increase by approximately 710 billion yuan, contributing to liquidity shortages[1] - Government bond issuance pressure in October is anticipated to decrease by about 700 billion yuan compared to September, but uncertainties remain regarding new fiscal policies[1] - An estimated fiscal gap of around 2.8 trillion yuan exists, with potential solutions including issuing additional general government bonds and increasing the use of special bonds[1] Group 3: Coordination Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Recent policies reflect a high degree of coordination between monetary and fiscal measures, including real estate support to stabilize housing price expectations and tools for stock buybacks[1] - The policy direction of maintaining interest rate spreads is expected to enhance commercial banks' participation in local debt management[1] - The increasing net purchase scale of government bonds provides liquidity support for potential incremental fiscal policies[1]