轮胎行业专题报告（2024年9月）：运费持续回落，赛轮Q3业绩预喜

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the tire industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing stable downstream demand, with U.S. retail sales of automotive parts and tire stores remaining at historically high levels. In August 2024, U.S. retail sales reached $12.382 billion, a month-on-month increase of 2.90% and a year-on-year increase of 1.83% [3][4]. - The report highlights that shipping costs have been declining, which is expected to positively impact the tire industry. As of September 27, 2024, the FBX index was at 4564.00 points, down 17.79% from its peak in August [3][4]. - SaiLun Tire has announced a positive earnings forecast for Q3 2024, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.21 billion to 3.28 billion yuan, an increase of 58.52% to 61.98% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Raw Materials - In September 2024, the average price of natural rubber was 16,068 yuan/ton, up 9.04% month-on-month and 24.24% year-on-year. The price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 16,008 yuan/ton, up 5.95% month-on-month and 18.90% year-on-year. The tire raw material price index was 179.18, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.26% and a year-on-year increase of 4.79% [7][8]. Production and Exports - In August 2024, China's rubber tire production reached 95 million units, a month-on-month increase of 4.31% and a year-on-year increase of 11.38%. The export of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.186 million units, up 2.08% month-on-month and 13.17% year-on-year [20][22]. - The average operating rate for all-steel tires in September was 58.09%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.42 percentage points, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires was 78.59%, a year-on-year increase of 6.47 percentage points [17]. Consumption - Domestic demand in China is recovering, with September 2024 heavy truck sales at approximately 58,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 6.90% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.32%. The logistics industry prosperity index was 52.40%, indicating a slight increase [33][39]. Shipping - Shipping costs have continued to decline, with the CCFI index for the East U.S. route dropping 29.19% from its peak in July 2024. This decline is expected to alleviate pressure on the tire industry [3][4]. Key Companies - SaiLun Tire and General Motors are highlighted as key companies in the tire industry [4].