投资策略研究：病灶仍在，战后日本经济周期与自我拯救

Economic Phases - Japan's economy has experienced three main phases since 1945: rapid growth (1950-1973) with an average annual growth rate of 10%, moderate growth (1974-1987) at about 5%, and a prolonged stagnation (1990-present) with growth rates below 1%[2][8]. - The post-war recovery period (1945-1950) involved aggressive industrial policies and the introduction of the Dodge Plan to stabilize the economy, which included fiscal tightening and fixed exchange rates[2][11][14]. Economic Policies and Challenges - The 1974-1987 period saw financial liberalization and structural adjustments, leading to a bubble economy characterized by rapid asset price increases, particularly in real estate and stock markets[3][15]. - Since 1990, Japan has faced a "lost three decades" marked by low growth, deflation, and stagnant consumption and investment, exacerbated by an aging population and high government debt levels[4][19]. Abenomics and Recent Developments - Abenomics, initiated in 2012, aimed to combat deflation and stimulate growth through aggressive monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy, and structural reforms, targeting a 2% inflation rate[3][19][34]. - Despite some short-term successes, such as stock market gains and yen depreciation, long-term effectiveness remains questioned due to persistent structural issues and rising inequality[4][19]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - Japan's central bank has implemented various monetary policies since 1990, including zero interest rate policies and quantitative easing, with the latest shift in March 2024 marking the end of negative interest rates[3][34]. - The transition from negative interest rates to a target range of 0-0.1% reflects ongoing efforts to stabilize the economy while addressing inflationary pressures[34].