BYD(SZ:002594) Shengang Securities·2024-10-11 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - In September, the company reported a total vehicle sales of 419,426 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.9% and a month-on-month growth of 12.4% [2] - The company is expected to exceed 3.95 million vehicle sales in 2024, driven by the launch of new models and rapid capacity release [3] - The high-end product matrix, including models from Tengshi, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang, is anticipated to significantly contribute to revenue and profit growth [3] - The overseas sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 33,012 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5% [3] - The company has expanded its global presence, with new energy vehicles entering 77 countries and regions, including Brazil, Germany, Japan, and Thailand [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, pure electric vehicle sales were 164,956 units (up 9.1% YoY, 11.1% MoM) and hybrid vehicle sales were 252,647 units (up 86.2% YoY, 13.6% MoM) [3] - The company’s total battery and energy storage battery installation reached 19.8 GWh in September, with a year-on-year growth of 38% and a month-on-month growth of 5.1% [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 729.7 billion, 907.8 billion, and 1,066.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 24.4%, and 17.5% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 39.3 billion, 49.2 billion, and 61.1 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 30.9%, 25%, and 24.4% respectively [4] Valuation - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2025, corresponding to a target price of approximately 422 yuan and a market capitalization of 1,228.9 billion yuan [4]