上周行业指数小幅下跌 ——证券行业周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈: 2025 年经济发展向新向优 预期目标圆满实现 初步核算，全年国内生产总值 1401879 亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长 5.0%。 分产业看，第一产业增加值 93347 亿元，比上年增长 3.9%；第二产业增加值 499653 亿元，增长 4.5%；第三产业增加值 808879 亿元，增长 5.4%。分季度看，一季度 国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，二季度增长 5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%，四季度增长 4.5%。从环比看，四季度国内生产总值增长 1.2%。 市场回顾： 上周（1.19-1.23）沪深 300 指数的涨跌幅为-0.62%，申万二级行业指数证券行 业涨跌幅为-0.61%。板块内个股 24 家上涨，1 家平盘，25 家下跌。 证券板块个股周度表现： 股价涨跌幅前五名为：华安证券、财通证券、东吴证券、湘财股份、国联民生。 股价涨跌幅后五名为：东方财富、哈投股份、锦龙股份、国信证券、中国银河。 本周投资策略： 上周证券行业指数下跌 0.61%，和沪深 300 指数的周度表现基本一致。证券板块 内 24 家个股上涨，其他 25 家个股 ...

上周行业指数小幅下跌 ——证券行业周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈: 2025 年经济发展向新向优 预期目标圆满实现 初步核算，全年国内生产总值 1401879 亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长 5.0%。 分产业看，第一产业增加值 93347 亿元，比上年增长 3.9%；第二产业增加值 499653 亿元，增长 4.5%；第三产业增加值 808879 亿元，增长 5.4%。分季度看，一季度 国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，二季度增长 5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%，四季度增长 4.5%。从环比看，四季度国内生产总值增长 1.2%。 市场回顾： 上周（1.19-1.23）沪深 300 指数的涨跌幅为-0.62%，申万二级行业指数证券行 业涨跌幅为-0.61%。板块内个股 24 家上涨，1 家平盘，25 家下跌。 证券板块个股周度表现： 股价涨跌幅前五名为：华安证券、财通证券、东吴证券、湘财股份、国联民生。 股价涨跌幅后五名为：东方财富、哈投股份、锦龙股份、国信证券、中国银河。 本周投资策略： 上周证券行业指数下跌 0.61%，和沪深 300 指数的周度表现基本一致。证券板块 内 24 家个股上涨，其他 25 家个股 ...

Investment Summary - The report indicates that all five major benchmark indices tracked last week experienced an overall increase, showcasing a strong market characteristic [2][22]. - The PE percentile for the CSI 300 index since January 1, 2021, is approximately 54%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is around 94%. This suggests that the current PE for the Shanghai Composite is higher than 94.62% of the time since January 1, 2019, indicating it has surpassed the 70% high threshold [2][22][23]. Index Performance Overview - The specific performance of major indices last week includes: CSI 300 index up by 1.38%, Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.65%, ChiNext Index up by 2.10%, and CSI 500 up by 3.38% [8][13][14]. - Among the 31 primary industry indices tracked, 26 sectors saw an increase while 5 sectors declined. The top five performing sectors were electronics, real estate, agriculture, media, and non-ferrous metals, while the bottom five were comprehensive, banking, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and social services [8][14]. Market Trading Data - The total trading volume last week was 7,176 billion shares, with a trading value of 116,320.75 billion yuan. There were 3,464 stocks that rose and 1,894 that fell [16][17]. - As of the end of last week, 59 stocks reached historical highs, while 4 stocks hit historical lows. The number of stocks reaching new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days were 486, 423, and 380 respectively, while the new lows were 46, 30, and 16 respectively [16][18]. Margin Trading Data - Margin trading data indicates that the weekly financing balance increased by approximately 636.57 billion yuan, while the weekly margin balance rose by about 8.59 million yuan [16][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry index increased by 0.65% last week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.38%. Most stocks in the securities sector showed strong performance, with 34 stocks rising and 16 falling [2][9] - As of last Friday's close, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the securities industry secondary index was 20.79, indicating a relatively reasonable valuation since January 2022, with notable elasticity in the sector [3][23] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a weekly change of 1.38%, while the securities industry index saw a change of 0.65%. Within the sector, 34 stocks increased in value, and 16 stocks decreased [2][9] - The top five performing stocks were Changjiang Securities, Guohai Securities, Pacific Securities, Guosheng Financial Holdings, and Bank of China Securities [10] - The bottom five performing stocks were Guolian Minsheng, CITIC Securities, Great Wall Securities, Industrial Securities, and China International Capital Corporation [11] Weekly Investment Strategy - The securities industry index's increase of 0.65% last week was weaker than the overall market performance. However, the majority of stocks in the sector showed strong upward movement. The PE ratio of 20.79 suggests a reasonable valuation, with significant elasticity remaining in the sector [3][23]

Investment Summary - The report indicates that the securities sector experienced a significant decline, with the sector index dropping by 5.31%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.81% during the week of September 1-5, 2025 [2][10][22] - Within the securities sector, only 2 stocks increased in value while 48 stocks decreased, highlighting a weak performance across the board [10][11][12] Market Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of the weekly performance of the securities sector, noting that the majority of stocks within the sector showed a downward trend [3][22] - The top five performing stocks were Pacific Securities, Huayin Securities, Nanjing Securities, Guohai Securities, and Zhongyuan Securities, while the bottom five were Xiangcai Securities, Huaxi Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Changjiang Securities, and Huaxin Securities [11][12] Price Changes in Production Materials - The report includes a monitoring of price changes in 50 key production materials, indicating that 17 products saw price increases, while 28 experienced declines, and 5 remained stable from mid-August to late August 2025 [6][9] - Notably, black metals showed a comprehensive price decline, suggesting a weak performance in the production sector, which may indicate low levels for the Producer Price Index (PPI) in August [9] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that despite the recent downturn, the valuation of the securities sector remains relatively reasonable, and the sector still exhibits significant elasticity since January 2022 [3][22] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach, with the potential for recovery as valuations stabilize [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the securities industry [6] Core Views - In the first seven months of 2025, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in the country decreased by 1.7%, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a profit decline of 7.5% [9][10] - The securities industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.73% [4][24] - The overall performance of individual stocks within the securities sector was weak, with 39 stocks declining and only 10 increasing in value [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, state-owned enterprises reported a total profit of 12,823.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [9] - The total profit for joint-stock enterprises was 29,742.5 billion yuan, down 2.8% [9] - Foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan invested enterprises saw a profit increase of 1.8%, totaling 10,216.7 billion yuan [9] - Private enterprises also reported a profit increase of 1.8%, amounting to 11,183.7 billion yuan [9] Market Review - The CSI 300 index experienced a weekly change of 2.71%, while the securities industry index fell by 0.73% [12] - Within the securities sector, the top five performing stocks were Xiangcai Securities, Changjiang Securities, Dongfang Caifu, First Venture, and CITIC Securities [13] - The bottom five performing stocks included Dongfang Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Dongwu Securities, Everbright Securities, and Industrial Securities [14] Weekly Investment Strategy - The report indicates that the securities industry index's performance was weaker than that of the CSI 300 index, with a notable number of stocks declining [4][24] - The valuation of the securities sector is considered relatively reasonable based on data since January 2022 [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the securities industry experienced a significant increase, with the industry index rising by 3.12% last week, although it underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 4.18% [2][10][24] - A total of 48 stocks within the securities sector saw price increases, while only 2 stocks declined, reflecting a strong performance among the majority of companies in the sector [3][10][24] - The report suggests that the valuation of the securities sector is relatively reasonable based on data from January 2022 to the present [3][24] Group 2 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the price changes in 50 key production materials, indicating that 27 products saw price increases, 17 experienced declines, and 6 remained stable from early to mid-August 2025 [6][9] - Among the categories, non-ferrous metals showed a comprehensive price increase, while black metals, chemical products, non-metallic building materials, and agricultural products exhibited mixed price movements [9] - The report highlights specific price changes for various products, such as rebar at 3261.0 yuan per ton, which decreased by 6.4 yuan, and electrolytic copper at 79177.5 yuan per ton, which increased by 735.0 yuan [7][8]

Investment Summary - The report indicates that all tracked indices experienced an increase last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 4.18% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.49% [2][8][13][14]. Index Performance Overview - The performance of major indices last week was as follows: CSI 300 index increased by 4.18%, Shanghai Composite Index by 3.49%, Shenzhen Component Index by 4.57%, ChiNext Index by 5.85%, and CSI 500 by 3.87% [8][13][14]. Industry Sector Overview - All 31 primary industry sectors tracked by Shenwan experienced an increase last week. The top five performing sectors were Communication, Electronics, Comprehensive, Computer, and Beauty Care, while the bottom five were Real Estate, Coal, Pharmaceutical Biology, Banking, and Environmental Protection [8][14]. Market Trading Data - The total trading volume last week was 8,262.46 million shares, with a total trading value of 129,374.02 billion. There were 4,295 stocks that rose and 1,068 that fell [17][18]. Historical Highs and Lows - As of last weekend, 62 stocks reached historical highs, while 2 stocks hit historical lows. The number of stocks reaching new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days were 728, 613, and 518 respectively. Conversely, the number of stocks reaching new lows over the same periods were 49, 18, and 6 [18][19]. Margin Trading Data - Margin trading data indicated that the weekly financing balance increased by approximately 915.27 billion, while the weekly margin balance rose by about 8.98 million [19][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that the CSI 300 index's price-to-earnings (PE) percentile is approximately 51% since January 1, 2021, while the Shanghai Composite Index's PE percentile is around 91%. Since January 1, 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index's PE percentile is 91.74%, indicating it is above the 70% high threshold [2][24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4] Core Insights - July saw strong performance in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with sales growth remaining high due to ongoing stimulus policies and increasing consumer demand [11][28] - Total vehicle sales in July reached 2.593 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Cumulative sales from January to July amounted to 18.269 million units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [11] - NEV sales in July were 1.262 million units, up 27.4% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 48.7%. For the first seven months of 2025, NEV sales totaled 8.22 million units, marking a 38.5% increase year-on-year and a penetration rate of 45.0% [11] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The automotive market continues to show positive momentum, with new model releases and sustained consumer purchasing demand contributing to a favorable market environment [11] Investment Strategy and Key Focus - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the vehicle and parts sectors due to improving performance, as well as key players in the NEV electrification and intelligence sectors. Recommended companies include BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely, and Li Auto [2][28][31] - The report highlights opportunities arising from domestic substitution due to the "dual circulation" strategy, with companies like Lingdian Electric Control and Sanhua Intelligent Control being of particular interest [2][31] Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.08%, ranking 9th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification. The sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, which saw increases of 1.70% [30][36] - In the sub-sectors, automotive services, parts, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles had varying weekly performance, with automotive services declining by 1.35% [30][32]

Investment Summary - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the securities sector has shown strong performance, with a significant increase in the sector index by over 8% last week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [3][22]. - The report highlights that the overall industrial added value in July 2025 grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [1][7]. Market Review - During the week of August 11-15, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index experienced a rise of 2.37%, while the securities industry index surged by 8.19%, indicating a robust performance across individual stocks in the sector [2][10]. - The top five performing stocks in the securities sector included Guosheng Jinkong, Great Wall Securities, Bank of China Securities, Dongfang Fortune, and Tianfeng Securities, while the bottom five were Guotai Haitong, Caida Securities, China Merchants Securities, Dongxing Securities, and Shenwan Hongyuan [11][12]. Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the high elasticity of the securities sector, suggesting that its strong performance is indicative of its potential for volatility and growth [3][22]. - The valuation of the securities sector is considered relatively reasonable based on data since January 2022, although the report cautions investors about the inherent high volatility characteristics of the sector [22][24].