美国9月CPI数据点评：通胀保持良性回升，无碍降息节奏

Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The U.S. September CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, indicating a stable inflation environment[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain manageable[1] - The current inflation trend is not expected to disrupt the planned two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Implications - The U.S. ten-year Treasury yield has adjusted to a range of 3.45% to 3.70% due to upward revisions in GDP data[2] - The overall inflation level is projected to remain stable, with oil prices likely to stay low due to seasonal factors and upcoming elections[2] - The stock market is currently in a traditional fluctuation phase, with no significant short-term risks identified[4] Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - If inflation stabilizes around 3%, the policy interest rate could potentially reach 3.5% to 4%, but the pace of rate cuts should be cautious[3] - The risk of re-inflation remains, particularly in the housing market, where prices are still above historical norms[3] - The overall economic outlook for the third and fourth quarters appears positive, provided there is no recession in the first half of the year[3]