宏观周报：政策组合拳持续推出，美联储降息节奏或放缓

Domestic Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Ministry of Finance have established a joint working group to enhance coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, with the first meeting held on October 9, 2024[5] - The PBOC has launched the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) tool, with an initial operation scale of CNY 500 billion, aimed at stabilizing the capital market and enhancing investor confidence[8] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to August 2024, with expectations for steady growth driven by government investment and the "golden September, silver October" construction season[5] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant divisions regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with a majority supporting a 50 basis point cut, while some favored a more cautious 25 basis point reduction[14] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, exceeding market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[14] - Germany's August exports increased by 1.3% month-on-month, reaching EUR 131.9 billion, but the economic outlook remains bleak with a projected GDP contraction of 0.2% for 2024[13] Commodity Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.82% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices fell by 1.52% and 1.56%, respectively[16] - The price index for cement rose by 0.51% week-on-week, contrasting with a slight decline in the prices of rebar and thermal coal[20] Investment and Economic Outlook - The draft law on promoting the private economy has been released for public consultation, aiming to stabilize and boost private investment, which saw a 0.2% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from January to August 2024[10] - The joint working group's initiatives and the SFISF tool are expected to provide substantial liquidity support, potentially injecting hundreds of billions into the capital market, thereby enhancing market stability[8]