西南总量周周谈：市场短期回调不改上行之势

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent market pullback does not alter the overall upward trend, driven by a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at countering economic downturns and boosting domestic demand [1][5]. Policy Developments - On October 8, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a comprehensive set of policies focusing on macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustments, enhancing domestic demand, supporting enterprises, stabilizing the real estate market, and boosting capital markets [1]. - A joint working group was established between the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Ministry of Finance to enhance coordination on bond market operations, indicating a potential normalization of PBOC's bond buying in the secondary market [2]. - The PBOC introduced the "Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility" to allow non-bank financial institutions to exchange less liquid assets for high-quality liquid assets, thereby improving their funding capabilities and stabilizing the capital market [3]. Market Trends - The report identifies that the recent market adjustments were influenced by several factors, including holiday effects, regulatory measures aimed at cooling market sentiment, and fiscal policy expectations that did not meet prior market optimism [5]. - The core reason for the market's upward movement is attributed to intensified anti-deflation policies, which are expected to sustain the upward trend in the market [6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift from broad market rallies to a more structural market, focusing on sectors that have been previously undervalued, particularly in domestic consumption, real estate, and new energy [6]. - Quantitative analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equities, with a signal of 4/4, supported by positive economic indicators and monetary easing signals [7]. - The report highlights a significant inflow of funds into specific ETFs, particularly those related to innovative sectors, indicating strong investor confidence in these areas [11]. Sector Analysis - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as home appliances, banking, telecommunications, and defense, which are expected to benefit from current policies and market conditions [9]. - The analysis of active equity fund positions shows a notable increase in allocations towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and healthcare sectors, while reducing exposure to consumer and cyclical sectors [10].