煤炭3Q前瞻：板块季度盈利趋势或有分化

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The quarterly profitability trend for thermal coal and coking coal companies may show divergence, with thermal coal benefiting from strong demand supported by high electricity generation growth, while coking coal faces pressure from weak downstream demand and increased imports [1][2] - The average price of thermal coal in the third quarter is expected to remain stable, while coking coal prices have declined due to seasonal demand weakness and import impacts [3][4] - The policy environment has turned positive, with expectations for improved downstream demand and a potential price increase for coal in the fourth quarter, particularly during the winter heating season [1][4] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The average price of North Port 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 is expected to be 851 RMB/ton, stable compared to the previous quarter but down 1.9% year-on-year [2] - Demand for thermal coal remains strong, supported by a year-on-year increase in electricity generation [2] - Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy are expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit of 3.4% and 4.5% respectively [1][5] Coking Coal - The average price of Shanxi Liulin low-sulfur coking coal has decreased by 10.8% quarter-on-quarter to 1,729 RMB/ton, with a low of 1,550 RMB/ton during the quarter [3] - The average daily pig iron production has dropped significantly, impacting coking coal demand [3] - The coking coal sector is expected to face a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of approximately 7% due to falling prices [1][3] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain in the range of 850-950 RMB/ton in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal demand and policy support [1][4] - The overall coal market fundamentals are considered solid, with expectations for a price uptrend due to improved demand forecasts and supportive policies [4]