工业、基础材料3Q24前瞻：虽处淡季，曙光初现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector [1][15]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector continues to experience weak demand in Q3 2024, but there are signs of improvement in profitability for cement and glass products. The issuance of special bonds is accelerating, which may lead to a gradual improvement in orders, although the overall recovery remains slow [1]. - Cement prices are expected to stabilize with a strong consensus among companies to maintain pricing, while glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels [2]. - The demand for fiberglass remains stable, with prices showing slight increases, while carbon fiber inventory accumulation is slowing down, leading to price stabilization [3]. Summary by Sections Construction Sector - The issuance of special bonds reached 2.1 trillion yuan in August and September, accounting for 41% of the total for the first three quarters. This is expected to lead to a slight improvement in order growth for central state-owned enterprises, although the conversion rate remains to be observed [1]. - Local state-owned enterprises are expected to benefit more significantly, with potential acceleration in orders [1]. - International engineering revenue growth is expected to slow down in Q3, with most profit margins remaining stable [1]. Consumer Building Materials - Demand remains flat, but the decline in sales is expected to narrow due to a low base effect from Q3 2023. The overall sales volume is still weak, with significant drops in various categories [1]. - The prices of major raw materials for waterproofing, coatings, and other building materials have decreased year-on-year, impacting profitability [1]. Cement and Glass - The average price of cement in Q3 2024 was 390 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Companies are actively pushing for price increases, and profitability is expected to recover [2]. - The average price of float glass was 75 yuan per heavy box, reflecting a significant decline due to weak demand and high inventory levels [2]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - Prices for various fiberglass products have shown slight increases, with demand remaining stable. However, the supply of raw materials is still expanding, which may limit further price increases [3]. - Carbon fiber prices are under pressure, with inventory levels increasing, but the accumulation rate is slowing down, leading to price stabilization [3].