3Q前瞻：客运需求向好，货运偏弱

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Passenger demand is expected to improve, while freight demand remains weak due to economic activity levels. Overall performance is mixed, with price performance showing divergence [1] - The report recommends cyclical sectors, particularly aviation and logistics/shipping, which are expected to see marginal demand improvement and significant profit recovery [1] Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - In July-August, civil aviation demand showed good performance, with major airlines' ASK/RPK increasing by 13.2%/20.4% year-on-year, recovering to 120.8%/121.2% of 2019 levels. Passenger load factor increased by 5.0 percentage points [2] - However, airline revenue levels are expected to be weak, with a notable decline in profitability anticipated for Q3 2024 [2] - Airports are expected to see significant profit growth driven by seasonal demand, with daily passenger throughput at major airports like Baiyun and Shenzhen increasing by 13.4% and 14.9% respectively [2] Shipping and Ports - Container shipping and port profitability are expected to improve both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong export demand and high shipping rates [3] - The average shipping rate indices for Q3 showed significant year-on-year increases, with container shipping rates up by 212% [3] - Port throughput for the first eight months of the year increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with August showing a month-on-month growth of 5.4% [3] Road and Rail - Road freight demand remains weak, with highway truck traffic down by 1.5% year-on-year in July-August. However, a slight recovery is expected in September [4] - High-speed rail is expected to maintain steady growth, benefiting from increased passenger flow during peak travel seasons [4] Express and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a revenue increase of 13.6% year-on-year, with volume growth of 20.9% and a slight decline in average price [5] - The cross-border logistics segment is experiencing high growth, supporting significant profit increases [5] - However, the bulk supply chain and warehousing sectors are facing performance declines due to weak upstream demand [5] Key Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include YTO Express (600233 CH), Southern Airlines (600029 CH), Spring Airlines (601021 CH), and others, with target prices and buy ratings provided [8][10]