Q3前瞻：需求仍显平淡，期待催化落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the essential consumer sector, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the benchmark index [1][14]. Core Insights - Demand in Q3 remains subdued, but there are expectations for gradual recovery due to multiple external stimulus policies. The report anticipates steady recovery in the sector [1]. - The report highlights that while high-end liquor maintains steady growth, the mid-tier segment shows a diverging trend, benefiting regional leaders from market growth [1][2]. - The soft drink sector continues to thrive, driven by strong travel demand, with leading companies experiencing robust sales during peak seasons [1][2]. - The report notes that the overall demand for dairy products is flat, with leading companies facing operational pressures but expecting improvements in the future [1][2]. Summary by Category Liquor - High-end liquor shows resilience with projected revenue growth for leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye at 14% and 5% respectively in Q3 [1][3]. - Mid-tier brands are performing well, with expected revenue growth for companies like Jingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu at 17% and 15% respectively [1][3]. Beer - The beer sector continues to face demand pressure, with expected revenue declines for Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer at -4% and -6% respectively in Q3 [2][3]. - Cost improvements are noted, with raw material prices continuing to decline, although operational efficiency may be impacted by weak consumption [2]. Seasonings - The seasoning sector shows stable demand with leading companies like Haitian and Qianhe expected to see revenue growth of 9% and flat respectively in Q3 [1][3]. - Cost pressures are easing, which is expected to positively impact profit margins for leading brands [1]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is highlighted for its strong performance, with Eastroc Beverage projected to achieve a revenue increase of 47% in Q3 [2][3]. - The overall demand for snacks is improving, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to see revenue growth of 5% and 18% respectively [2][3]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is currently in an adjustment phase, with companies like Yili expected to see revenue declines of 8% in Q3 [2][3]. - The report anticipates operational improvements for leading dairy companies in the future [1]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is facing operational challenges, with companies like Anjijia expected to see flat revenue growth in Q3 [2][3]. - Competition remains intense, impacting the performance of major players in the sector [1].