华金宏观·双循环周报（第77期）：总结货币，展望财政

Monetary Policy Insights - In September, the net purchase of government bonds was less than the reduction in MLF by CNY 291 billion, indicating a contraction in long-term base currency supply[1] - The central bank's operations in late September were neutral, with a net reduction of CNY 910 billion in long-term base currency supply due to a net purchase of only CNY 2000 billion in government bonds[1] - The expected reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 basis points in December aims to prevent a rapid decline in new credit[1] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government is expected to issue CNY 1 trillion in regular government bonds by year-end, raising the deficit ratio to 3.8% for this year and projecting a deficit ratio of around 4.2% for 2025[1] - The expansion of the central government's general public budget deficit is prioritized over special bonds and project bonds, focusing on sustainable consumption-driven growth[1] Market and Economic Trends - The introduction of the Securities, Funds, and Insurance Companies Swap Facility (SFISF) with an initial quota of CNY 500 billion aims to enhance leverage for non-bank financial institutions, potentially increasing market risk exposure[1] - The average mortgage interest rate is expected to be adjusted flexibly, allowing for market-driven negotiations between borrowers and banks, which may help mitigate systemic financial risks in the real estate sector[1] Risk Factors - Risks include the possibility that monetary easing may not yield expected results and that fiscal expansion may fall short of projections[1]