美国二次通胀的上行高度或有限

Group 1: Inflation Data Insights - September CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 3.3%, both exceeding market expectations of 2.3% and 3.2% respectively[4] - Energy prices fell significantly, with September energy CPI at -6.8%, contributing to the overall inflation decline[4] - Despite the overall inflation decline, core inflation showed resilience, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the economy[6] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in November has slightly increased following the unexpected strength in September's inflation data[4] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut in November has diminished, with current expectations stabilizing around a 25 basis point reduction[8] - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach to rate cuts, focusing on maintaining stability in the labor market and inflation control[13] Group 3: Concerns About Future Inflation - Concerns about secondary inflation risks are primarily driven by the lagged effects of rising rents on service inflation and potential commodity inflation[9] - The rebound in housing prices is expected to influence rental prices with a lag of approximately 18 months, potentially impacting inflation towards the end of the year[11] - Core commodity prices have shown signs of stabilization, but the overall impact on inflation remains limited due to weak core commodity performance[10] Group 4: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and potential weaknesses in the labor market are identified as significant risk factors for future economic stability[14]