东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241012

Market Nature Judgment - The current market cycle has shifted from a focus on financing to stimulating domestic demand and increasing property income, indicating a new historical phase for the capital market [1] - If expansionary fiscal policies are officially initiated, a long-term bullish trend can be confirmed, as indicated by the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference [1] Short-term Market Phases - The market is expected to experience three phases: a rapid revaluation phase, a consolidation phase, and a potential mid-term bull market phase [2] - Currently, the A-share market has a PE ratio of 16.8, which is within a reasonable valuation range, suggesting a potential rebound of 10-20% towards the 3700-4000 index range [2] - The second phase will likely be characterized by strong fluctuations influenced by quarterly reports and external factors such as the U.S. elections [2] Investment Strategy - In the first phase of the market, focus on high-performing stocks in the ChiNext and STAR Market, while considering solid fundamentals in the main board stocks [2] - As the market transitions to the second phase, it is advisable to shift positions towards technology stocks, cyclical stocks, and sectors with significant growth potential [6] Satellite Internet Industry - The satellite internet sector is rapidly developing, with SpaceX's Starlink leading globally, and domestic players like China StarNet and Shanghai Yuxin also making strides [6][9] - The architecture of satellite-ground integrated communication includes wireless access networks, core networks, and carrying networks, with a focus on low-latency and high-efficiency data transmission [7][8] Investment Opportunities in Satellite Internet - The satellite internet industry is expected to be one of the most promising segments in the communication sector over the next five years, with significant growth potential in low-orbit satellite communication payloads [8] - Key companies to watch include Zhenyou Technology, Xinke Mobile, and Zhongxing Communications, which are involved in core network and access network development [9] Building Materials Industry - The issuance of special bonds by local governments has accelerated, with significant increases in bond issuance in August and September 2024, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment and domestic demand [13][14] - The building materials industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand as supply-side optimization and policy effects transition from quantitative to qualitative changes [14][20] Copper Industry Insights - Global copper mine supply growth remains rigid, with a projected annual growth rate of only 1.93% from 2023 to 2026, indicating a potential widening supply gap [21] - The growth rate of global copper smelting capacity is expected to outpace that of copper mine supply, contributing to the low copper TC prices observed [22]