2024年第四季度化工行业：供需较为均衡，盈利处于高位

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on "green and environmental" policies in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with profitability remaining high despite fluctuations in fertilizer prices [1][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in domestic demand for chemical fibers and the gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the industry [5][10]. Industry Policy - Policies in 2024 focus on green development, energy conservation, and sustainable growth, with significant initiatives aimed at enhancing the efficiency and safety of the phosphate chemical industry by 2026 [2][4]. - The government aims to establish a comprehensive carbon peak and carbon neutrality standard system by 2030, emphasizing the importance of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions in the manufacturing sector [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The chemical products market has seen stable prices in 2024, with expectations of continued stability in the supply-demand balance for chemical raw materials and products [5][8]. - The chemical fiber sector is projected to experience improved supply-demand conditions due to the recovery of domestic demand and the introduction of new production capacities [8][10]. - Fertilizer prices have shown a downward trend in 2023, yet the profitability of fertilizer companies remains high, indicating a potential for continued improvement in the overall supply-demand landscape of the chemical industry [10]. Financial Analysis - The report notes a significant variation in the issuance rates and spreads of short-term financing bonds in the chemical industry, which are inversely related to the credit ratings of the issuing entities [11].