美国9月CPI数据解读：通胀回落渐近尾声

Inflation Data - In September, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%[8] - The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.2% and the previous value of 3.2%[8] - Month-on-month, the overall CPI remained stable at 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1%[8] Core Goods and Services - Core goods saw a rebound with a month-on-month growth rate rising from -0.2% to 0.2%, particularly driven by used car prices which increased from -1.0% to 0.3%[10] - The core services sector continued its downward trend, with housing services showing a month-on-month decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%[12] - The new tenant rent index suggests that the trend of declining rents may continue into Q1 2025[12] Oil Prices and Economic Outlook - September's decline in oil prices contributed to the overall inflation decrease, but rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a recovery in oil prices in October, potentially increasing inflation pressure[14] - The jobless claims rose to 258,000, higher than the previous 225,000, primarily due to hurricane impacts in Florida and North Carolina, not necessarily indicating a recession risk[16] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Recent economic data has diminished previous expectations for aggressive rate cuts, with the Fed likely to reduce rates by only 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings in November and December[16] - The unexpected 50 basis point cut in September was largely a response to weaker employment data from July and August, reflecting concerns about falling behind the curve[16]