紫金矿业vs南方铜业：估值情况及基本面对比

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained from the previous rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report compares the valuation and fundamentals of Zijin Mining and Southern Copper, highlighting significant differences in their PE and EV/EBITDA ratios. As of September 21, 2024, Zijin's PE (TTM) is 16.3x, while Southern Copper's is 29.4x, indicating an 81% premium for Southern Copper. However, in terms of EV/EBITDA, Zijin's valuation is 12.1x compared to Southern Copper's 17.0x, showing a smaller premium of 41% for Southern Copper [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Valuation Comparison - The report emphasizes the differences in valuation between Zijin Mining and Southern Copper, with a focus on PE and EV/EBITDA metrics. It notes that while Zijin appears undervalued based on PE, the difference in EV/EBITDA is less pronounced, suggesting that market conditions and company quality also play significant roles in these valuations [4][24]. 2. Fundamental Comparison - Resource Reserves: Southern Copper has a copper resource of 71.9 million tons and reserves of 44.8 million tons, ranking first among listed copper companies. Zijin Mining has a copper resource of 74.56 million tons and reserves of 33.4 million tons, with additional gold and other metal resources [6][8]. - Profit Composition: Southern Copper's revenue is primarily from copper and its by-product molybdenum, accounting for 89% of total revenue in 2023. In contrast, Zijin Mining derives 45% of its gross profit from copper and 24% from gold, indicating a dual focus on both metals [9][10]. - Cost Structure: Southern Copper's cash cost, after by-product credits, is significantly lower than its gross cost, demonstrating effective cost management. Zijin's production costs are higher, reflecting its diverse product range and operational challenges [11][16]. - Future Growth: Southern Copper projects a copper production increase to 162.1 million tons by 2032, while Zijin aims for a production target of 150-160 million tons by 2028, indicating robust growth plans for both companies [17][19]. - Cash Flow & Investor Returns: Southern Copper has an average dividend payout ratio of 58%, while Zijin's is around 40%, reflecting different capital allocation strategies influenced by their respective growth trajectories [20][21]. 3. Valuation Differences - The report analyzes the reasons behind the valuation differences, attributing the higher PE for Southern Copper to its lower debt levels, higher copper reserves, and better cash flow generation. However, it argues that Zijin's lower tax rate and diverse resource base should also be considered when evaluating their relative valuations [24][27].