建筑材料行业专题研究：日本水泥行业复盘

Investment Rating - The report rates the Japanese cement industry as "Buy" for key companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [4]. Core Insights - The Japanese cement industry has undergone a complete lifecycle, characterized by four phases: introduction, growth, high plateau, and decline [2][9]. - Cement demand in Japan has significantly decreased from its peak in 1990, with a cumulative decline of 60% from 8,629 million tons in 1990 to 3,458 million tons in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of -2.73% [2][16]. - The supply side has contracted due to policy interventions and corporate initiatives, with total cement capacity decreasing from 12,899 million tons in 1983 to 4,994 million tons in 2024, a reduction of 47.8% [2][24]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Demand Cycle Review - The Japanese cement industry has experienced a complete lifecycle, divided into four stages: 1. Introduction (1871-1946) 2. Growth (1946-1973) with a CAGR of 17.9% in production 3. High Plateau (1973-1996) with production levels stabilizing between 7,000-10,000 million tons 4. Decline (1996-present) with a significant drop in demand and production [2][16][18]. Section 2: Supply Side Contraction - The contraction of cement supply has occurred in three phases: 1. 1984-1990: Rapid capacity reduction through policy guidance 2. 1994-1998: Mergers and restructuring leading to increased industry concentration 3. 1998-present: Major companies leading voluntary capacity reductions [2][24][27]. Section 3: Financial and Stock Performance - During the demand downturn, companies experienced declines in both volume and price, but have since diversified into overseas and non-cement businesses, leading to a rebound in profitability [2][22]. - Since 2010, leading Japanese cement companies have increased capital expenditures and maintained a dividend payout ratio of 20%-30% [2][22]. Section 4: Market Dynamics - Cement demand is closely linked to the construction industry and public investment, with government demand accounting for 44% and private demand for 56% in 2023 [22]. - The correlation between GDP growth and cement demand has been evident, with periods of high GDP growth corresponding to increased cement demand [18][22].