Group 1 - The report indicates that historically, the probability of a significant drop in A-shares after a large volume increase is low, primarily influenced by policies, external events, and fundamentals [1][12][18] - A review of A-share performance since 1992 shows that after large volume increases, there are three main market behaviors: direct decline, oscillation followed by decline, and oscillation followed by recovery, with 6 instances of oscillation followed by recovery and only 1 instance of direct decline [1][12][18] - Current A-share trends suggest a potential for oscillation followed by recovery, supported by positive policy directions and limited external risks [1][18] Group 2 - The report highlights that the economic recovery trend remains intact, with ongoing infrastructure projects and a rebound in real estate sales contributing to this outlook [2][21][24] - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with significant inflows into A-shares observed recently, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [2][24][28] - The report emphasizes that sectors such as technology growth, core assets, and undervalued state-owned enterprises may present investment opportunities in the short term [2][19][21]
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Huajin Securities·2024-10-12 07:32