歌星开唱丁财两旺，国庆澳门不一样

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gaming industry, specifically recommending "Buy" for Sands China and Amax Holdings with target prices of HKD 24.70 and HKD 4.70 respectively [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The gaming sector in Macau is showing signs of recovery, with visitor numbers during the National Day holiday reaching over 990,000, which is 119% of the 2019 levels. Daily average visitors also restored to 102% of 2019 levels [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-profile concerts in driving gaming revenue, noting that Sands China invited renowned artist Andy Lau to perform, targeting high-value customers [1][2]. - The report anticipates that overall gaming revenue in October will exceed summer levels, although it notes potential seasonal slowdowns in November and December due to the 25th anniversary of Macau's return and the Chief Executive election [1][2]. - The report highlights the expectation of favorable policies for the gaming sector, citing recent articles in People's Daily that suggest more supportive measures for Macau [1][2]. Summary by Sections Visitor Trends - During the National Day holiday, Macau welcomed over 990,000 visitors, recovering to 119% of 2019 levels, with daily averages also showing strong recovery [1][2][3]. - The report includes detailed visitor statistics from the past six years, illustrating the recovery trajectory of visitor numbers [5][9]. Financial Projections - The report projects that Macau's gaming revenue will recover to approximately 80% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year, with visitor growth expected to contribute positively to future revenue [2][3]. - Sands China is expected to benefit from renovations, with a target price set at HKD 24.70, reflecting a 12x EV/EBITDA for 2025 [2][3]. Company Recommendations - Sands China and Amax Holdings are highlighted as top picks, with Sands China expected to resume dividends and Amax Holdings showing improved market share and profitability [2][3][4]. - The report notes that Amax Holdings has seen its market share increase from 1.3% in H1 2023 to 2.1% in H1 2024, with EBITDA margins improving [3][4].