Macro Insights - During the National Day holiday, consumer enthusiasm for travel surged, with long-distance travel increasing, and per capita travel spending expected to return to 2019 levels[1] - The sales of durable goods have increased due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy, while expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have cooled[1] Market Strategy - Stock indices are expected to continue rising, driven by a shift in policymakers' attitudes towards economic policy and capital markets, alongside a decrease in risk-free interest rates[2] - The cyclical nature of China's manufacturing capacity is under pressure, with historical analysis provided to discuss how to alleviate this excess capacity and its impact on stock performance[2] Overseas Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound due to improved domestic policy clarity and expectations, with historical references to the influence of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and fiscal policy on market dynamics[2] Fixed Income and Equity Trends - There is a potential for simultaneous movement in stocks and bonds, indicating a cyclical relationship that may lead to increased volatility in long-term bonds[5] - A significant increase in risk appetite among A-share investors has been noted, with over 50% of profits in indices like the CSI 300, reflecting strong market enthusiasm[6] Sector Performance - Domestic equity assets have shown strong performance, with a risk parity strategy yielding a return of 5.66% this year[8] - The beverage company Dongpeng's performance exceeded expectations, with a target price adjustment to 252.4 CNY and an "overweight" rating maintained[13] Investment Recommendations - Emerging markets, particularly in India and China, are expected to benefit from the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, with a recommendation to overweight Indian stocks[9] - The construction sector is projected to have significant upside potential, with leading companies expected to see stock price increases of 19-105%[18]
国君研究|一周研选 1008-1012
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-12 08:03