宏观专题研究：财政政策后续加力会怎样？

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The recent fiscal policy measures aim primarily to cover budget deficits rather than significantly boost overall demand, with an estimated deviation of nearly 3 trillion CNY in fiscal revenue and expenditure for the year[1] - As of August 2024, the cumulative deficit of the general public budget is projected to reach 60,629 billion CNY, indicating a budget gap of approximately 20,000 billion CNY[2] - The government fund budget is expected to have a revenue shortfall exceeding 10,000 billion CNY due to declining land sales, with a cumulative deficit of 21,350 billion CNY as of August 2024[3] Group 2: Debt Management Strategies - The proposed fiscal measures may include increasing the deficit and issuing special bonds to address funding gaps, with the general public budget deficit likely leading to the issuance of central government bonds[4] - A significant increase in local government debt limits is anticipated, which will help alleviate repayment pressures and support local governments in maintaining basic public services[5] - Approximately 20% of the newly issued local special bonds in 2024 are expected to be allocated to existing government investment project debts[6] Group 3: Market Implications - If the fiscal stimulus is implemented, it is expected to enhance risk appetite in the stock market, thereby boosting market confidence[7] - The short-term outlook for the 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain volatile, with a potential reversal in bond market logic contingent on large-scale fiscal stimulus measures[8] - The overall policy direction aligns with expectations, but specific budget adjustments will require approval from the National People's Congress, with further details anticipated by the end of October[9]