房地产行业更新：止跌回稳，通胀为先

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for the real estate sector to stabilize and stop declining, with inflation being a primary focus for achieving this stabilization [4]. - The report suggests that the market logic will shift towards changes in inflation and risk-free returns, given the stabilization of housing prices [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the past performance of real estate can be understood through asset pricing principles, where rental yields and housing prices are interrelated [5]. - It highlights that while rental yields are improving, they are not yet at a high level, suggesting that adjustments in inflation and risk-free returns are still necessary [5]. - The report anticipates a shift in policy focus from price signals to credit tools, indicating a potential end to the negative feedback loop of deleveraging and price pressure [5]. Company Earnings Forecast - Key companies and their earnings forecasts are summarized as follows: - Vanke A (000002.SZ): 2023A EPS of 1.02, 2024E EPS of 0.74, 2025E EPS of 0.82, with a current price of 9.10 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - Poly Developments (600048.SH): 2023A EPS of 1.01, 2024E EPS of 0.95, 2025E EPS of 1.01, with a current price of 10.25 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ): 2023A EPS of 0.70, 2024E EPS of 0.79, 2025E EPS of 0.85, with a current price of 10.63 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - China New Group (601512.SH): 2023A EPS of 0.91, 2024E EPS of 0.92, 2025E EPS of 0.99, with a current price of 7.51 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - Binjiang Group (002244.SZ): 2023A EPS of 0.81, 2024E EPS of 0.98, 2025E EPS of 1.10, with a current price of 9.92 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7].