银行Q3前瞻：业绩筑底延续，投资收益波动

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on the banking sector [6] Core Views - Q3 banking performance is expected to continue bottoming out, with provisions potentially helping stabilize profits [1] - Credit demand remains weak, and asset growth is expected to slow slightly [1] - Deposit rates have room to decline further, which could alleviate net interest margin (NIM) pressure [1] - Recent bond market volatility may weaken non-interest income growth [1] - Asset quality remains stable, but retail risk trends need monitoring [1] - The introduction of the Swap Facility (SFISF) by the central bank could attract funds to high-dividend banks [4] - Policy measures, including capital replenishment for large banks and expanded equity investment pilot programs, are expected to boost market confidence [5] Asset Growth and NIM Pressure - Q3 asset growth for listed banks is expected to slow slightly, with NIM still under pressure [2] - In August, RMB loans grew by 8.5% YoY, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - A 50bp reduction in existing mortgage rates could impact NIM by -1.0bp in 2024E and -5.0bp in 2025E [2] - Deposit rate cuts are expected to partially offset loan pricing pressures, but with a lag [2] Investment Income and Asset Quality - Non-interest income growth for listed banks may decline in Q3 due to bond market volatility [3] - Wealth management business recovery is pending, and fee income remains under pressure [3] - Overall asset quality is stable, but retail non-performing loans (NPLs) have risen significantly in H1 2024 [3] - Real estate NPLs remain high, and risks in key sectors need continuous monitoring [3] Swap Facility and High-Dividend Opportunities - The Swap Facility (SFISF) could introduce funds into high-dividend stocks, with banks being a preferred choice [4] - The banking sector's PB ratio is 0.64x, ranking in the 18.30th percentile since 2010 [5] - The sector's 12-month dividend yield is 4.91%, the second-highest among 30 Wind industries [5] - Policy measures are expected to create structural opportunities in high-dividend and high-performing small and medium-sized banks [5] Policy Measures and Market Confidence - Multiple policies were introduced in September, including a 50bp RRR cut and a 20bp rate cut [5] - The central bank's SFISF is expected to bring incremental funds to the stock market [5] - The banking sector's valuation is the lowest among 30 industries, with a high dividend yield [5] Key Recommended Stocks - Ningbo Bank (002142 CH): Target price of 26.29 CNY, rated Buy [7] - Hangzhou Bank (600926 CH): Target price of 15.87 CNY, rated Overweight [7] - Changshu Bank (601128 CH): Target price of 8.79 CNY, rated Buy [7] - Chengdu Bank (601838 CH): Target price of 19.49 CNY, rated Buy [7] - Nanjing Bank (601009 CH): Target price of 12.94 CNY, rated Buy [7] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077 CH): Target price of 6.55 CNY, rated Overweight [7]