Q3前瞻：投资修复，业绩分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expectation that the industry stock index will outperform the benchmark [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery driven by investment, with profit performance showing differentiation among firms. The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rose by 12.4% and 16.1% respectively in Q3, which is expected to boost brokerage investment income [1][2]. - It is anticipated that large brokerages will see a net profit growth rate ranging from -10% to +25% in the first three quarters, with medium-sized brokerages having higher equity exposure likely to show stronger resilience [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities, such as high-quality leaders with a price-to-book ratio around 1x, brokerages with merger expectations, and small to medium-sized brokerages with high equity exposure and strong brokerage business elasticity [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Major indices experienced significant increases, with the A-share brokerage index rising by 43.9% in Q3, recovering 25.9% year-to-date. The trading volume surged, with daily average trading volume reaching 2 trillion CNY in early October [1][4]. Policy Environment - The report notes a strong policy support environment, with the central bank introducing structural monetary policy tools to support capital markets and the CSRC promoting active mergers and acquisitions [1][2]. Future Outlook - The report expects Q4 to exhibit stronger momentum for brokerages, driven by high market activity levels and a favorable policy backdrop, despite ongoing pressures in investment banking [2][3].