Policy Measures - The government has allocated a total of 12 trillion CNY for debt relief, including 4 trillion CNY from previous fiscal balances and approximately 8 trillion CNY in special bonds for debt relief[3] - A significant increase in the debt limit for replacing local government hidden debts is proposed, marking the largest measure since 2019[3] - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, with the specific scale yet to be determined[3] Economic Indicators - Public fiscal revenue growth from January to August was -2.6%, falling short of the annual target of 3.3% by approximately 6 percentage points[4] - The total fiscal deficit could reach up to 2.6 trillion CNY, considering the shortfall in revenue and the challenges in transferring funds from local governments[4] Market Impact - The announcement is expected to stabilize market sentiment, as the government emphasizes its fiscal resilience and capacity for increased borrowing[6] - The issuance of special government bonds is historically associated with positive effects on the stock market, particularly benefiting the banking sector[6] - Measures to support the real estate market are anticipated to provide stability to the sector, which has seen significant declines recently[6] Fiscal Strategy - The government is exploring options to raise the fiscal deficit ratio, potentially discussed in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December[4] - There is a focus on enhancing financial support for students, with a reference to a total investment of 93.2 billion CNY in 2023 for student aid[3]
财政发布会,哪些增量信息
HUAXI Securities·2024-10-12 10:03