2024Q3家电行业业绩前瞻：出口延续高增态势，期待内销刺激效果

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The export performance continues to show high growth, while there are expectations for domestic sales to improve due to various economic stimulus policies [4][12] - The Q3 export data indicates a significant increase, with appliance exports growing by +23.3% and +18.1% in July and August respectively, and export values increasing by +16.8% and +12.3% [12][19] - The report anticipates that the "old-for-new" policy, which began implementation in September, will significantly boost domestic sales in Q4, leading to a resonance between domestic and foreign sales [4][27] Summary by Sections 1. Overview - Q3 export performance outpaced domestic sales, but the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and economic stimulus measures since September are expected to enhance domestic sales in Q4 [4][19] 2. Company: Q3 Performance Forecast - Leading white goods companies are expected to maintain stable revenue and performance, while emerging categories like cleaning appliances show strong demand [9][19] - The growth certainty ranking for the sector is: white goods > cleaning appliances > components > black goods > electrical lighting > kitchen small appliances > personal care > kitchen appliances [9] 3. Industry: Continued High Growth in Exports, Domestic Sales Awaiting Policy Stimulus 3.1. Exports: Q3 Continues High Growth, Significant Overseas Driving Effects - Q3 appliance exports maintained high growth, driven by volume increases, with notable growth in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [12][19] - The export volume for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August saw increases of +40.1%, +20.7%, and +7.8% respectively [12][19] 3.2. Domestic Sales: Q3 Relatively Flat, Policy Stimulus to Aid Q4 Performance - Domestic sales in Q3 were relatively flat, with white goods showing stability and cleaning appliances performing well [19][22] - The report notes that the "old-for-new" policy has led to significant improvements in sales, particularly during the National Day holiday, with air conditioner sales increasing by +152% [25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Midea Group (2024 PE: 16.0x) and Hisense Home Appliances (12.5x) as they are expected to benefit directly from policy stimuli [27] - For the black goods sector, TCL Electronics (9.2x) and Hisense Visual (12.1x) are recommended, while kitchen appliances like Robam Appliances (12.7x) and Vatti Corporation (13.2x) are highlighted for their potential rebound [27]