财政政策催化，看好工程机械与铁路装备

Investment Rating - The report rates the machinery industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive impact of fiscal policy on the machinery sector, particularly in engineering machinery and railway equipment, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises. It emphasizes the need to focus on the incremental demand generated by central fiscal policies [4][5] - The report notes a significant decline in real estate investment, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% from January to August 2024, marking a historical low. This has led to a continued downturn in demand for concrete machinery, tower cranes, and hoists, which are heavily reliant on real estate investment [5] - Infrastructure construction is identified as a key driver for engineering machinery demand, with earth-moving machinery (excavators, loaders) showing relatively better performance. The stabilization of the real estate sector is expected to improve domestic demand for engineering machinery [5] - The report discusses historical price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the engineering machinery sector, noting that the current PE (TTM) stands at 22.5 times, which is considered reasonable compared to historical highs and lows [5] - Long-term trends in the industry are identified, including technology-driven sectors, global competitiveness in equipment manufacturing, and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in overcapacity industries [5] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the central government's commitment to implementing targeted fiscal policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, particularly in the railway equipment and engineering machinery sectors [5] Real Estate Market - The report highlights the ongoing decline in real estate investment, which has negatively impacted the demand for construction-related machinery. The report suggests that the stabilization of the real estate market could lead to a rebound in machinery demand [5] Engineering Machinery Sector - The report forecasts a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector in the second half of 2024, driven by both domestic and international sales growth. It recommends key companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion for investment [9] Long-term Industry Trends - The report identifies three major long-term trends: the digital and intelligent upgrade of manufacturing, the global competitiveness of Chinese equipment manufacturing, and the potential for consolidation in overcapacity sectors [5]