有色及贵金属周报：政策预期升温，内需品旺季更旺

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2][65]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations, which may limit the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, putting pressure on gold and silver prices. However, domestic policies are expected to boost demand, particularly in the industrial metals sector, which is currently in a traditional peak season [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - U.S. September CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 2.3% and 0.1%. Core CPI rose by 3.3%, also exceeding market expectations. The resilience of the U.S. job market suggests limited room for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to inflation concerns. In China, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have signaled significant policy support, which is expected to enhance domestic demand [5][8]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes that the industrial metals sector is likely to perform well due to strong domestic demand and the ongoing peak consumption season. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with additional beneficiaries listed [5][9]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices showed mixed trends, with LME prices down by 0.77% and SHFE prices up by 1.78%. The report indicates that supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material price increases and environmental inspections affecting domestic production [9][16]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to the U.S. inflation data, with SHFE gold at 597.38 CNY per gram and COMEX gold at 2,655.00 USD per ounce. Silver prices also declined, with SHFE silver at 7,686 CNY per kilogram [19][20]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, including the manufacturing PMI in China, which stood at 49.80% in September, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [26]. 5. Profit Forecast for Listed Companies - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rated as "Overweight" based on their projected performance [60].